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Red39
4911.7
57314.7
Blue24
6713.4
81812.6
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2626101520303540453924

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
573
Unranked
14.71.0
13.614.6
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.3
67
Unranked
13.40.7
12.211.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
49
Unranked
11.70.6
11.412.0
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.9
818
Unranked
12.61.0
13.812.8
Auto
Teleop
End