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Red15
98211.0
88110.7
Blue21
93810.2
93710.1
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions23235101520253035401521

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
982
Unranked
11.00.3
13.012.6
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.8
938
Unranked
10.20.3
12.112.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
881
Unranked
10.70.3
9.89.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.5
937
Unranked
10.10.3
11.211.5
Auto
Teleop
End