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Red8
6934.5
95320.5
Blue43
35325.0
86828.4
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions64450204080100120843

Skew-normal from the six robots' rating spreads, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69
Unranked
34.52.5
38.836.4
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 6.1
868
Unranked
28.42.0
21.924.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
953
Unranked
20.52.0
25.423.3
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 4.5
353
Unranked
25.02.5
23.425.9
Auto
Teleop
End