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Red40
102427.7
109830.5
Blue5
93915.6
145123.3
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3533020406080100405

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1098
Unranked
30.50.8
18.018.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 7.2
1451
Unranked
23.38.7
23.314.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1024
Unranked
27.70.8
15.916.6
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 12.1
939
Unranked
15.63.6
15.712.1
Auto
Teleop
End