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Red30
131514.2
128618.6
Blue45
101827.7
12158.7
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions33340204060803045

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1286
Unranked
18.60.5
19.118.6
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 9.1
1018
Unranked
27.71.4
26.327.7
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1315
Unranked
14.20.5
14.714.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 5.5
1215
Unranked
8.71.4
7.28.7
Auto
Teleop
End