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Red11
6403.5
7439.6
188010.2
Blue16
12305.7
3335.7
15946.9
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions23210103040501116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1880
Unranked
10.20.9
8.47.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 3.3
1594
Unranked
6.90.5
9.79.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
743
Unranked
9.60.9
7.06.1
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 3.9
1230
Unranked
5.70.3
5.75.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
640
Unranked
3.50.9
6.55.6
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 2.2
333
Unranked
5.70.5
6.86.3
Auto
Teleop
End