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Red20
145017.8
31616.3
155910.3
Blue2
22915.1
17439.9
34014.8
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions43320206080202

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1450
#10
17.81.8
13.711.9
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 2.7
229
#32
15.12.6
13.010.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
316
#22
16.31.8
15.213.4
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.5
340
#27
14.82.6
14.311.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1559
#18
10.31.8
12.911.1
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.4
1743
#36
9.92.6
6.43.7
Auto
Teleop
End