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Red85
171818.7
262024.4
261918.6
Blue69
118921.2
7417.9
277121.6
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions60603040507080901008569

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.41.3
23.224.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 2.8
2771
#36
21.60.4
20.821.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1718
#59
18.71.3
19.120.3
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 2.5
1189
#57
21.20.4
20.821.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
2619
#45
18.61.3
17.618.8
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.7
74
#47
17.90.4
19.019.5
Auto
Teleop
End