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Red2
23521.5
31600.4
31440.9
Blue3
17421.7
27230.6
23731.6
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions22046823

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2352
#26
1.50.0
1.51.5
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.2
1742
#22
1.70.1
0.80.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3144
#45
0.90.6
0.90.3
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.7
1.60.1
0.50.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3160
#13
0.40.7
1.00.3
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.1
2723
#34
0.60.1
0.40.5
Auto
Teleop
End