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Red2
8650.1
14041.5
15651.7
Blue3
31170.7
14820.9
33870.8
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions430268101223

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1565
#33
1.70.1
1.91.8
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.8
1482
#36
0.90.0
0.70.7
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1404
#30
1.50.1
1.61.4
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.7
3387
#47
0.80.0
0.90.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
865
#48
0.10.1
0.1-0.0
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.7
3117
#45
0.70.0
1.11.2
Auto
Teleop
End