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Red1
20460.9
25500.5
18230.7
Blue4
15710.5
29220.7
31652.1
44%Model gave it56%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions220468101214

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2046
#29
0.90.0
0.80.7
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 1.2
3165
#16
2.10.2
0.81.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1823
#32
0.70.0
0.80.7
Auto
Teleop
End
Level
2922
#44
0.70.2
0.81.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
2550
#59
0.50.0
0.10.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Level
1571
#56
0.50.2
0.40.6
Auto
Teleop
End