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Red4
7710.6
26250.8
15032.8
Blue2
23610.5
23860.7
22001.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions31024681042

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2.80.1
2.02.0
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.4
2200
#16
1.40.0
0.80.8
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2625
#26
0.80.1
0.40.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.2
2386
#22
0.70.0
0.30.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
771
#21
0.60.1
0.40.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Level
2361
#29
0.50.0
0.50.5
Auto
Teleop
End