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Red5
31470.7
33622.1
34100.6
Blue1
25301.0
17810.3
12591.1
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions230468101251

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3362
#12
2.10.2
1.41.6
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.9
1259
#19
1.10.2
0.80.7
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3147
#41
0.70.2
0.81.0
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.3
2530
#23
1.00.2
1.31.1
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3410
#25
0.60.2
0.10.3
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.3
1781
#40
0.30.2
0.70.5
Auto
Teleop
End