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Red40
299320.7
18919.6
15668.4
Blue0
32433.4
323013.9
36650.2
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions27250102030405060400

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.71.2
16.117.3
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 6.8
3230
#10
13.91.3
19.718.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
9.61.2
5.06.1
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 6.2
3.42.2
1.6-0.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1566
#15
8.41.2
4.86.0
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 8.3
3665
#30
0.22.2
4.62.4
Auto
Teleop
End