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Red18
48813.7
29102.9
29232.7
Blue21
368114.3
29442.1
322115.4
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1616010203040501821

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
488
#18
13.70.1
8.88.9
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 1.7
3221
#13
15.40.5
10.010.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2910
#17
2.90.1
6.16.2
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 11.3
3681
#24
14.310.6
14.33.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
2923
#36
2.70.1
2.12.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.6
2944
#21
2.10.5
2.22.7
Auto
Teleop
End