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Red8
29352.9
10531.3
316120.4
Blue16
7712.6
13349.2
124113.8
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions23210406080100816

Skew-normal from the six robots' rating spreads, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
20.40.8
16.816.1
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 6.5
13.80.3
13.913.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2935
#22
2.91.1
2.21.0
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 6.4
9.20.3
6.96.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1053
#32
1.31.1
2.71.6
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 1.4
771
#26
2.60.3
0.60.3
Auto
Teleop
End