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Red125
426554.8
245715.7
331439.5
Blue121
481035.2
447015.2
324227.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11661050100150200125121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4265
#18
54.80.9
53.954.8
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 19.6
4810
#84
35.22.6
32.635.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3314
#12
39.50.9
38.639.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 12.4
3242
#32
27.12.6
24.627.1
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
2457
#97
15.70.9
14.815.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.5
4470
#57
15.22.6
12.715.2
Auto
Teleop
End