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Red58
238621.8
359712.9
447328.1
Blue9
393020.9
345112.5
454611.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions39470206080100120589

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.11.5
18.219.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 7.1
3930
#10
20.91.8
18.016.1
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2386
#17
21.80.9
9.610.4
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 9.3
3451
#37
12.53.1
13.09.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3597
#29
12.91.5
12.714.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.1
4546
#34
11.81.8
14.913.1
Auto
Teleop
End