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Red149
22554.5
162642.8
192336.4
Blue158
122841.7
137037.7
272956.5
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12311250100150200149158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
225
#25
54.51.4
58.559.9
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 2.0
56.52.2
46.949.1
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1626
#27
42.81.4
39.941.3
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.1
1228
#19
41.72.2
37.539.8
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1923
#22
36.41.4
22.924.2
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 1.2
1370
#15
37.72.2
29.031.2
Auto
Teleop
End