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Red191
272956.5
164036.6
259060.5
Blue171
127945.1
167652.9
108940.4
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15413450100200191171

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.50.7
59.660.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 7.6
1676
#23
52.90.6
52.553.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
56.50.7
55.656.3
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 11.4
45.10.6
44.645.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1640
#26
36.60.7
35.736.4
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 3.8
1089
#12
40.40.6
39.940.5
Auto
Teleop
End