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Red100
13140.2
17223.9
115316.6
Blue64
151718.0
15123.8
35855.5
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions653005010015020010064

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
131
#5
40.23.3
32.736.0
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 16.3
151
#6
23.82.4
18.120.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
172
#18
23.93.3
14.617.9
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 5.9
1517
#27
18.02.4
12.615.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1153
#26
16.63.3
12.716.1
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 11.2
3585
#39
5.52.4
4.77.0
Auto
Teleop
End