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Red78
396219.7
306211.5
260334.9
Blue29
351112.6
33713.8
174315.7
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4849204060801007829

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.92.3
21.523.8
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 19.2
1743
#16
15.71.5
17.115.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3962
#21
19.72.3
18.120.4
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 5.8
337
#36
13.81.5
15.714.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3062
#32
11.52.3
9.111.3
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 1.2
3511
#37
12.61.5
15.514.0
Auto
Teleop
End