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Red20
454211.4
445024.1
38137.0
Blue37
468310.1
30708.5
9497.4
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions35340204060802037

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4450
#21
24.11.2
12.711.6
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 14.0
4683
#39
10.10.2
11.811.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
4542
#48
11.41.2
9.78.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 3.0
3070
#54
8.50.2
11.812.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3813
#35
7.01.2
11.510.3
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 0.3
949
#40
7.40.2
11.511.6
Auto
Teleop
End