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Red120
484111.3
385314.9
418352.8
Blue146
394427.6
284037.6
69815.6
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions72580100150120146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.82.5
50.052.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 15.3
2840
#16
37.66.2
29.936.1
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3853
#24
14.93.6
10.614.2
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 12.7
3944
#26
27.66.7
21.327.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
4841
#38
11.33.9
9.213.1
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 4.3
698
#6
15.64.3
9.313.5
Auto
Teleop
End