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Red177
352560.8
310416.5
169940.8
Blue105
18149.4
455728.3
355519.6
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11197050150200250177105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3525
Unranked
60.83.4
58.061.4
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 11.3
181
Unranked
49.40.3
51.351.7
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1699
Unranked
40.83.4
37.440.8
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 12.5
4557
Unranked
28.30.3
28.128.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3104
Unranked
16.53.4
13.116.5
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 3.0
3555
Unranked
19.60.3
19.319.6
Auto
Teleop
End