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Red114
335421.4
399227.8
38631.2
Blue105
456232.6
341051.6
139813.8
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions78103050150200250114105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
386
#18
31.21.6
31.132.7
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 20.3
3410
#11
51.60.3
50.150.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3992
#10
27.82.3
30.733.0
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 4.8
4562
#39
32.60.4
33.734.1
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
3354
#30
21.41.6
20.221.8
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 7.6
1398
#40
13.80.3
15.615.9
Auto
Teleop
End