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Red180
1147.6
162586.7
49457.7
Blue163
110846.9
3379.5
124163.2
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions209207100150250180163

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1625
Unranked
86.71.4
92.591.1
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 7.2
33
Unranked
79.52.3
78.576.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
494
Unranked
57.71.4
64.262.8
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 5.5
1241
Unranked
63.22.3
71.969.7
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
11
Unranked
47.61.4
51.249.8
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 0.7
1108
Unranked
46.92.3
57.855.5
Auto
Teleop
End