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Red156
191882.0
520513.6
365843.1
Blue109
30851.9
247429.8
531638.8
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions133125050100150200250156109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.01.2
83.784.9
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 30.1
308
#5
51.90.9
53.052.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3658
#15
43.11.2
38.239.5
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 4.2
5316
#10
38.80.9
37.336.4
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
5205
#29
13.61.2
9.610.8
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 16.2
2474
#39
29.80.9
36.035.1
Auto
Teleop
End