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Red160
523916.7
475817.4
261259.7
Blue121
522431.3
330214.5
353970.8
19%Model gave it81%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions611180100150200250160121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2612
#12
59.74.5
47.652.1
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 11.1
70.81.0
65.866.8
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
4758
#15
17.44.5
13.417.9
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 13.9
5224
#21
31.30.6
29.229.8
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
5239
#27
16.74.5
8.513.0
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 2.2
3302
#39
14.51.0
14.015.0
Auto
Teleop
End