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Red40
422919.2
222715.8
402124.6
Blue53
318418.5
251122.0
324422.9
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4356020801001201404053

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4021
#48
24.60.4
22.722.3
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.7
3244
#16
22.90.1
22.122.0
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
4229
#18
19.20.4
13.613.1
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 2.8
2511
#49
22.00.1
19.919.8
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
2227
#54
15.80.4
8.98.5
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 2.7
3184
#24
18.50.1
12.412.3
Auto
Teleop
End