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Red154
164735.2
397444.4
198940.2
Blue156
457337.7
331442.3
43326.7
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions142101050200250300154156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3974
#19
44.40.9
37.338.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 2.1
3314
#30
42.32.4
41.443.8
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
1989
#52
40.20.9
40.741.6
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 2.5
4573
#29
37.72.4
35.137.6
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1647
#49
35.20.9
57.858.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 8.5
433
#54
26.72.4
30.633.1
Auto
Teleop
End