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Red33
490933.9
172114.7
332330.9
Blue50
183119.9
178621.6
395817.9
40%Model gave it60%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions375301001503350

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4909
#15
33.90.6
14.213.6
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 12.3
1786
#25
21.60.0
14.914.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
3323
#31
30.90.6
17.216.7
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 10.9
1831
#28
19.90.0
19.219.1
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
1721
#30
14.70.6
8.37.8
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 3.2
3958
#21
17.90.0
16.316.3
Auto
Teleop
End