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Red144
252137.1
241135.8
95635.3
Blue114
508524.1
405730.0
299035.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10385050150200250144114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2521
#11
37.10.7
34.535.2
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 1.3
2990
#12
35.80.4
35.035.5
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2411
#20
35.80.7
33.133.9
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 5.7
4057
#16
30.00.4
29.229.7
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
956
#13
35.30.7
32.733.4
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 11.2
24.10.4
23.323.8
Auto
Teleop
End