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Red92
292835.3
420526.2
491540.9
Blue91
413114.6
255749.2
358829.4
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions113112501001509291

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4915
Unranked
40.90.9
47.346.3
Auto
Teleop
End
blue by 8.4
2557
Unranked
49.21.2
63.061.9
Auto
Teleop
End
Second
2928
Unranked
35.30.9
33.832.8
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 5.9
3588
Unranked
29.41.2
40.339.2
Auto
Teleop
End
Third
4205
Unranked
26.20.9
29.929.0
Auto
Teleop
End
red by 11.6
4131
Unranked
14.61.2
10.79.5
Auto
Teleop
End