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Red36
351315.3
462721.4
511817.6
Blue56
449719.9
473317.0
572518.4
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2621010304050603656

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4627
#5Sur
21.40.5
7.58.0
Auto0.0
Teleop21.4
End0.0
red by 1.5
4497
#17Sur
19.92.8
10.413.2
Auto0.0
Teleop19.8
End0.0
Second
5118
#25
17.60.8
6.97.7
Auto-0.1
Teleop17.6
End0.0
blue by 0.8
5725
#15
18.42.8
5.07.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop18.5
End0.0
Third
3513
#30Sur
15.30.8
11.912.7
Auto1.2
Teleop14.2
End0.0
blue by 1.7
4733
#21
17.02.8
7.19.9
Auto-0.0
Teleop17.0
End0.0