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Red8
572518.4
511817.6
401016.2
Blue40
473317.0
356226.4
148226.2
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions23540100150840

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5725
#15
18.41.8
7.86.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop18.5
End0.0
blue by 8.0
26.40.6
21.621.1
Auto0.5
Teleop25.9
End0.0
Second
5118
#25
17.61.8
7.75.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop17.6
End0.0
blue by 8.6
26.20.9
19.618.7
Auto0.2
Teleop26.0
End0.0
Third
4010
#16
16.21.1
13.612.5
Auto0.2
Teleop15.9
End0.0
blue by 0.8
4733
#21
17.00.9
9.99.0
Auto-0.0
Teleop17.0
End0.0