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Red138
445148.5
93126.5
420716.3
Blue156
178536.2
401018.3
62335.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions80754060100120140138156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4451
#28
48.52.8
44.747.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop48.9
End0.0
red by 12.3
1785
#37
36.23.9
32.336.2
Auto0.0
Teleop36.1
End0.0
Second
931
#71
26.52.8
23.726.5
Auto1.0
Teleop25.6
End0.0
blue by 9.0
623
#44
35.53.9
31.635.5
Auto-0.0
Teleop35.5
End0.0
Third
4207
#57
16.32.8
13.416.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop16.3
End0.0
blue by 2.1
4010
#70
18.33.9
14.418.3
Auto0.3
Teleop18.0
End0.0