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Red126
540342.7
327816.9
85749.4
Blue159
153867.9
566718.4
36043.8
22%Model gave it78%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions89140050200250300126159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
857
#8
49.41.3
47.448.6
Auto0.3
Teleop49.1
End0.0
blue by 18.6
67.91.1
71.072.1
Auto0.2
Teleop67.7
End0.0
Second
5403
#18
42.71.3
38.039.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop42.8
End0.0
blue by 1.1
360
#30
43.81.1
44.145.2
Auto-0.4
Teleop44.2
End0.0
Third
3278
#55
16.91.3
14.916.2
Auto-0.1
Teleop16.9
End0.0
blue by 1.5
5667
#62
18.41.1
21.722.8
Auto0.2
Teleop18.2
End0.0