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Red4
162519.0
31609.6
361228.9
Blue36
40904.7
41822.9
235915.1
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6632050100150436

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.94.9
19.114.2
Auto2.0
Teleop27.0
End0.0
red by 6.0
418
#18
22.90.2
12.912.7
Auto1.3
Teleop21.7
End0.0
Second
1625
#52
19.04.9
25.620.7
Auto2.4
Teleop16.6
End0.0
red by 3.9
2359
#33
15.10.2
14.914.7
Auto0.0
Teleop15.1
End0.0
Third
3160
#46
9.64.9
18.013.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop9.8
End0.0
red by 4.9
4090
#54
4.70.2
10.710.4
Auto-0.1
Teleop4.8
End0.0