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Red16
378311.6
433029.3
556812.6
Blue17
220024.2
555110.7
50407.8
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions563601001501617

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.33.2
25.422.2
Auto1.5
Teleop27.8
End0.0
red by 5.1
2200
#23
24.22.0
16.814.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop24.5
End0.0
Second
5568
#35
12.63.2
14.411.2
Auto0.8
Teleop11.8
End0.0
red by 1.9
5551
#37
10.72.0
14.112.1
Auto0.8
Teleop9.9
End0.0
Third
3783
#36
11.63.2
15.111.8
Auto0.0
Teleop11.6
End0.0
red by 3.8
5040
#49
7.82.0
9.87.8
Auto-0.5
Teleop8.3
End0.0