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Red58
533314.4
480210.3
477421.5
Blue2
478810.7
46145.7
47395.6
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions33220406080100582

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.51.9
15.417.4
Auto-0.2
Teleop21.7
End0.0
red by 10.7
4788
#20
10.71.4
11.510.1
Auto-0.2
Teleop10.9
End0.0
Second
5333
#22
14.41.9
7.49.3
Auto-0.5
Teleop14.8
End0.0
red by 8.7
4614
#26
5.71.4
6.95.5
Auto-0.0
Teleop5.7
End0.0
Third
4802
#21
10.31.9
9.411.3
Auto1.0
Teleop9.3
End0.0
red by 4.7
4739
#31
5.61.4
6.04.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop5.7
End0.0