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Red132
394432.3
418334.8
414624.2
Blue117
6042.1
153853.8
449614.5
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions82110050150200250300132117

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.80.7
34.134.8
Auto-0.3
Teleop35.1
End0.0
blue by 19.0
53.80.1
53.753.8
Auto-0.1
Teleop53.8
End0.0
Second
32.30.7
31.632.3
Auto-0.1
Teleop32.4
End0.0
blue by 9.8
60
#2
42.10.1
42.042.1
Auto0.3
Teleop41.8
End0.0
Third
4146
#31
24.20.7
23.524.2
Auto0.0
Teleop24.2
End0.0
red by 9.7
4496
#33
14.50.1
14.414.5
Auto0.4
Teleop14.1
End0.0