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Red40
302118.5
318710.4
40187.1
Blue45
553915.1
149227.3
247826.1
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions234301001502004045

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3021
#14
18.50.7
9.310.0
Auto0.1
Teleop18.4
End0.0
blue by 8.8
27.30.3
18.819.1
Auto-0.1
Teleop27.4
End0.0
Second
3187
#39
10.41.1
10.912.0
Auto-0.0
Teleop10.4
End0.0
blue by 15.7
26.10.3
13.313.6
Auto0.7
Teleop25.4
End0.0
Third
4018
#37
7.11.1
6.87.9
Auto-0.1
Teleop7.2
End0.0
blue by 8.0
5539
#25
15.10.3
9.59.8
Auto0.3
Teleop14.7
End0.0