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Red100
469617.4
323061.5
313316.0
Blue50
99117.8
357722.1
456516.7
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9345015020010050

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.50.8
60.661.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop61.8
End0.0
red by 39.4
22.10.1
21.321.4
Auto0.0
Teleop22.1
End0.0
Second
4696
#15
17.40.8
15.916.7
Auto1.0
Teleop16.3
End0.0
blue by 0.4
991
#21
17.80.1
18.118.2
Auto0.8
Teleop17.0
End0.0
Third
3133
#27
16.00.8
12.613.4
Auto-0.6
Teleop16.7
End0.0
blue by 0.7
4565
#22
16.70.1
15.015.1
Auto0.2
Teleop16.5
End0.0