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Red187
330972.7
212279.5
50597.5
Blue126
172636.1
378525.5
240315.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions162490100200250300187126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.50.6
76.477.0
Auto0.8
Teleop78.8
End0.0
red by 43.4
36.11.0
33.334.2
Auto0.3
Teleop35.8
End0.0
Second
72.70.6
69.670.2
Auto11.0
Teleop61.8
End0.0
red by 47.3
25.51.0
22.723.6
Auto-0.9
Teleop26.4
End0.0
Third
5059
#34
7.50.6
4.34.9
Auto0.3
Teleop7.2
End0.0
blue by 8.3
2403
#28
15.81.0
13.013.9
Auto0.5
Teleop15.2
End0.0