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Red38
41716.3
570013.8
135129.5
Blue6
415917.8
499012.0
57605.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions41350206080100120386

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1351
#13
29.50.2
27.427.2
Auto0.4
Teleop29.1
End0.0
red by 11.7
4159
#21
17.81.6
20.619.1
Auto1.0
Teleop16.9
End0.0
Second
5700
#44
13.80.3
11.911.6
Auto0.4
Teleop13.4
End0.0
red by 1.8
4990
#48
12.01.6
9.78.1
Auto-0.6
Teleop12.6
End0.0
Third
4171
#52
6.30.3
2.52.2
Auto0.8
Teleop5.5
End0.0
red by 0.8
5760
#57DQ
5.52.4
7.14.6
Auto-0.7
Teleop6.1
End0.0