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Red314
60427.8
254125.7
97376.7
Blue318
347691.8
97195.6
96818.0
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions224187100150250300350314318

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
254
#1
125.71.5
124.3125.7
Auto16.2
Teleop109.6
End0.0
red by 30.1
971
#4
95.62.0
93.795.6
Auto2.7
Teleop93.0
End0.0
Second
973
#6
76.71.5
75.276.7
Auto0.2
Teleop76.5
End0.0
blue by 15.1
91.82.0
89.891.8
Auto-1.1
Teleop92.8
End0.0
Third
604
#18
27.81.5
26.327.8
Auto-0.5
Teleop28.3
End0.0
red by 9.8
968
#30
18.02.0
16.018.0
Auto0.2
Teleop17.7
End0.0