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Red100
50269.9
198376.3
186817.7
Blue148
64925.9
11528.5
167169.2
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions104116050150200250300100148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.30.5
78.778.3
Auto0.8
Teleop75.5
End0.0
red by 7.1
69.21.5
59.260.7
Auto-1.5
Teleop70.7
End0.0
Second
1868
#21
17.70.5
24.123.6
Auto-0.5
Teleop18.3
End0.0
blue by 10.8
115
#13
28.51.5
24.125.6
Auto-0.1
Teleop28.6
End0.0
Third
5026
#20
9.90.5
6.66.1
Auto0.2
Teleop9.8
End0.0
blue by 16.0
649
#19
25.91.5
34.736.2
Auto0.5
Teleop25.4
End0.0