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Red128
213517.0
11528.5
97195.6
Blue114
97376.7
549921.0
96818.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12079050100150200128114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
971
#4
95.60.5
76.977.4
Auto2.7
Teleop93.0
End0.0
red by 19.0
973
#6
76.71.3
69.270.5
Auto0.2
Teleop76.5
End0.0
Second
115
#13
28.50.5
26.527.0
Auto-0.1
Teleop28.6
End0.0
red by 7.5
5499
#16
21.01.3
15.817.1
Auto1.9
Teleop19.2
End0.0
Third
2135
#29
17.00.5
14.815.2
Auto0.2
Teleop16.8
End0.0
blue by 1.0
968
#30
18.01.3
3.54.8
Auto0.2
Teleop17.7
End0.0