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Red60
109910.0
217026.8
199116.6
Blue4
19517.3
34647.4
17624.8
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions39500206080100120140160604

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.81.4
17.118.5
Auto0.1
Teleop26.7
End0.0
red by 2.0
176
#6
24.83.6
23.620.0
Auto0.8
Teleop23.9
End0.0
Second
1991
#18
16.61.4
12.814.2
Auto0.1
Teleop16.6
End0.0
blue by 0.7
195
#26
17.33.6
20.016.5
Auto-0.4
Teleop17.7
End0.0
Third
1099
#30
10.01.4
12.013.4
Auto0.3
Teleop9.7
End0.0
red by 2.6
3464
#34
7.43.6
6.42.8
Auto1.6
Teleop5.9
End0.0